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Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis is the study of chart patterns.  Chart patterns give you a snapshot of where a market has been and knowing where it has been gives you a clue as to where it is going.  A simple way to think of chart patterns is the same way a doctor looks at an X-ray.  Chart patterns are a quick and easy way to see what's going on with a stock or an overall market.

Statistical trends are created from trading activity.  These trends are seen through pictures known a charts.  The trends are based on price movement and volume.  Price movement is simply whether the trend is moving up, down or sideways.  Volume addresses the number of trades placed during a given timeframe such as an hour, day, week or month.

Technical analysis operates from the assumption that past trading activity and price changes of a security can be valuable indicators of the security's future price movements.  The basis for this is the notion that something in motion stays in motion.  Therefore, a security in rising in price, or in an uptrend, will continue to rise.  Conversely, a security declining in price, i.e., a downtrend, will continue to decline.  There would need to be a powerful force, such as a problem is the company or the economy in general, to cause a trend to change direction.

Over the years hundreds of chart patterns and indicators have emerged, but ultimately only a few are worth truly understanding.  Setting aside all the various intricacies of chart patters, the main thing you want to see is the direction of a stock or market.  These directions are called trends and there are only three trends that can occur:  Up, Down or Sideways (Flat).  

This chart shows an Uptrend with rising prices from left to right:

 

uptrend.png

This next chart shows a Downtrend with declining prices from left to right:

Downtrend.png

This last chart shows a Sideways or Flat trend from May 2018 to March 2019:

Flat.png

Generally, when looking to buy a stock, you want to see the stock in an uptrend.  Each uptrend normally makes a pause, known as pullback or a base.  This is a period of time where the stock takes a break from moving up.  This break may look very much like a Sideways or Flat trend.  Most strong stocks will have between three and five bases during the entire uptrend.  You will normally want to buy a stock moving out of a first, second or third stage base.  Sometimes you can buy when a stock breaks out of a fourth stage base, but the later the base stage, meaning bases four or five, have a greater chance of failing.  This means you have a greater risk of losing money.  To learn more about technical analysis and how it can be applied to your investing consider obtaining see below.

 

 

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